Illinois Law Professor Predicts Bankruptcy Filings Headed Toward Pre-BAPCPA Levels
In the November ABI Journal , Part I of Professor Charles Tabb's examination of consumer bankruptcy trends examined filing rates and the Chapter 7 / Chapter 13 balance. In Part II this month, Professor Tabb makes a clear prediction: Filing rates probably will soon return to the range of pre-BAPCPA levels. Tabb doesn't expect, however, that those rates will continue to climb. That's because his research shows a clear correlation between the level of revolving consumer debt (primarily credit card debt) and bankruptcy filings, and the revolving credit market seems to be largely saturated.
Tabb's analysis is full of interesting details, including the fact that the correlation of bankruptcy filings with revolving debt as a whole is much stronger than the correlation between bankruptcy filings and delinquencies, or between bankruptcy filings and debt-to-income ratios. Overall debt correlates with bankruptcy filings, but not as closely as revolving debt. The bottom line: the level of credit card debt in America appears to be the clearest predictor of the bankruptcy filing rate. Based on that correlation, we can expect filings to climb back to pre-BAPCPA levels in the near future.
For all its interesting data, the article is as worthy of a read for Tabb's delivery of stunning information such as "The evidence shows that debtors file bankruptcy in very predictable numbers, depending not on what the bankruptcy law provides, but on how burdened they are with debt." This, Tabb suggests, shouldn't have come as a surprise to Congress. Of course, those members of Congress who spearheaded the 2005 bankruptcy reforms have shown themselves to be quite easily surprised by the obvious. Bob Lawless talks about a recent example--one that would be entertaining if real federal legislation hadn't sprung from this kind of ignorance--on the Credit Slips blog: Senator Grassley Struggles to Understand the Means Testing Forms